Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?

with Louise Loo, Nicholas Fearnley and April Skinner | Online | March 26, 2024

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.

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Webinar
China’s fiscal policy: shifting from local to central

with Louise Loo and Betty Wang | Online | March 22, 2024

1/ Is the official budget enough to help achieve the implied optimistic GDP growth in 2024? 2/ Does the issuance of special treasury bonds suggest a shift of stimulus focus from local governments to the central government? 3/ What could be the potential sectors receiving fiscal support?

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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
Australian Key Themes in 2024: Growth to slow as policy bites

with Sean Langcake and Ben Udy | Online | January 31, 2024

Australia's economy outperformed expectations for much of 2023, boosted by a surge in population growth. With this dividend to growth set to wane, and policy settings curbing demand growth, the outlook for 2024 is weaker than 2023. We see three key themes as pivotal to next year's outlook.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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Webinar
China at the half-year mark: Is the glass half empty or half full?

with Lloyd Chan and Louise Loo | Online | August 16, 2023

The near-term macro outlook on China looks especially foggy. There’s more stimulus but not the ones we’re used to. More property weakness but a hard-landing still appears remote. New growth areas but the regulatory environment remains cautious. Join us as we discuss the implications of recent developments to our outlook.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Implications of heightened costs and global recession on Asia construction

with April Skinner and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | May 24, 2023

2023 is expected to remain challenging for global construction, buffeted by still heightened construction costs and cooling global demand. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook is strong, with Emerging Asia forecast to buck the trend. Please join us to discuss the outlook for construction activity in Asia, including the key issues and risks facing the sector.

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Commodities demand: China to the rescue?

with Toby Whittington, Diego Cacciapuoti, Kiran Ahmed and Stephen Hare | Online | March 23, 2023

China’s abrupt reopening caused commodity prices to jump earlier this year but questions remain about the strength of its recovery. We examine the extent to which China will support commodity demand this year whilst also discussing the supply-side outlook in commodity markets and implications for prices.

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Webinar
China: After the Two Sessions

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | March 10, 2023

The annual “Two Sessions” in China this year will see a change in personnel at the top levels, potential changes to party restructuring and major financial regulators, as well as the unveiling of key economic targets for 2023, amid the fierce confluence of domestic and external headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges, including China’s growth model transition and ageing demographics, will also dominate policy discussions. This webinar will focus on the implications of these policy announcements on our China macro outlook, and discuss the risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
Japan Key themes 2023: BoJ finally out of woods?

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 13, 2022

Will global inflation finally end the long-term deflationary trend in Japan? Would this enable the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to start adjusting its Yield Curve Control policy in 2023? In this webinar we will answer these questions by examining four interrelated themes. Are firms regaining pricing power? Is a price-wage spiral about to start? What is the yen forecast in 2023? Will the new BoJ governor make a difference?

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Webinar
The Unbearable Uncertainty of Chinese Outbound Travel

with Dave Goodger and Michael Shoory | Online | December 1, 2022

With China having been largely closed for almost three years, due to travel restrictions as part of the Government's 'zero-covid' policy, global tourism destinations eagerly await the resumption of visits from China. Having been the largest global source market for tourism spending before the pandemic, the resumption of Chinese outbound travel is crucial for the industry's recovery. This webinar will discuss current expectations and uncertainty around the timing for Chinese outbound travel recovering, and what it means for recovery of tourism for many destinations.

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Webinar
Will Asia construction remain the victor amid escalating construction costs and the growing risk of global recession?

with April Skinner and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | November 30, 2022

While Asia has seen a surge in construction activity following the gradual fading in Covid restrictions across the region, there still remains a significant backlog of projects yet to be completed. Supply chain issues and consequent escalating construction costs has not only pushed out construction timelines but has seen the destruction of construction demand. The sector is at risk of further headwinds, with the cooling in external demand and increased risk of global recession. In this webinar we will discuss the outlook for construction activity in Asia including the risks and implications of increasing construction costs and global recession.

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Webinar
Asian Economic Outlook for 2023

with Arup Raha and Gabriel Sterne | Online | November 16, 2022

Asian economies are no strangers to economic shocks but this time is different. In particular, China’s growth has faltered, the Fed is raising rates, and energy prices are high. This combination is unprecedented. Moreover, there is limited counter-cyclical policy space. Arup Raha will present the Asia team’s outlook on the upcoming year – the likely outcomes and main risks.

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Webinar
Navigating the challenging outlook for Asian real estate markets

with Nick Wilson and Innes McFee | Online | September 28, 2022

Intensifying headwinds from more aggressive monetary tightening is impacting the outlook for Asian real estate markets. Additional challenges regarding soaring construction costs, upward pressure on cap rates, and prolonged covid restrictions are adding an additional layer of complexity to the region. Join us as we take a look at various aspects of the investment landscape to identify the forthcoming threats and opportunities.

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Webinar
Asian monetary policy and FX outlook amid aggressive Fed tightening

Online | August 18, 2022

There are several large shocks currently affecting Asian economies: a hawkish Fed; sluggish Chinese growth; and high energy prices. To this add a US dollar that is stronger than it has been in about 20 years. How are Asian economies likely to navigate these turbulent times? Our economists will focus on the likely direction of monetary policy in Asian and the consequent path of key financial variables in the region.

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