Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

A global shortage of semiconductors for auto parts is currently forcing major automakers to slash vehicle production. This is a reminder that while global supply-chain disruptions have eased considera...

The coronavirus crisis is likely to have persistent negative effects on world output. Our baseline forecast already assumes the crisis will cut the long-term level of world GDP by around 2%, or US$2.1...

Our latest Covid-19 vulnerability scorecard shows that advanced economies (AEs) are most vulnerable to the pandemic. This contrasts with our summer update when emerging markets (EMs) were overtaking A...

Alongside massive global liquidity support, EM policymakers’ firm deployment of monetary and prudential policies have enabled their economies to pass an incredibly severe stress test better than many...

The speedy vaccine rollout in Israel means that the majority of the most vulnerable to Covid-19 there may soon enjoy peak protection from the virus. But for various reasons, other economies are unlike...

We expect most Asian currencies to gain against the US$ in 2021 and be supported by solid current account prospects in coming years. Longer-term, we expect continued catch-up-driven real exchange rate...

Sharply rising household savings, booming house prices, strong financial markets, and unprecedented fiscal support have all contributed to unusually strong household balance sheets at the start of 202...

World goods trade recovered strongly in the second half of 2020 and by mid-2021 should be expanding at a double-digit annual pace. But the rebound is uneven, and this, plus coronavirus-related uncerta...

The sense of optimism at the prospect of widespread vaccinations in 2021 has been deflated by the discovery of more transmissible forms of coronavirus in the UK and South Africa, as well as the stutte...

News on vaccine progress has offered some light at the end of the Covid tunnel, but the discovery that more transmissible variants have spread outside the UK and South Africa means the downside risks...