Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

Abundant liquidity should keep financial conditions for emerging markets favourable even as EMs come under pressure from rising inflation and weakening currencies force some EM central banks to tighte...

We have cut our global GDP growth forecasts again, and now have reduced our 2021 estimate by a total of 0.7pp since June in response to the spread of Delta, supply-chain disruption, and higher inflati...

Shifting demographics will cause large changes in current accounts over the coming decades, with capital flowing from fast-ageing societies towards those with slower demographic change. We have adjust...

World goods trade volumes have been edging downward since March, and our survey-based indicator suggests further short-term weakness. There is much variation across sectors and economies, but overall,...

After a 2020 mini-boom, private-sector credit impulse is waning, with a faster return to pre-pandemic low growth the most likely outcome. Talk of debt sustainability will probably soon be replaced by...

The global economic outlook appears to be deteriorating, according to our quarterly review of alternative measures of economic risk. Most of the metrics now point to weaker risk-weighted growth in 202...

Stringent mitigation scenarios aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C are right at the edge of what is economically feasible and will require a radical transformation of the whole economy, not just...

A perfect storm in global natural gas markets has driven prices up more than fivefold in the past 12 months in Europe and Asia. Longstanding supply issues, depleted inventories, surging demand, and th...

While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global financial turmoil. Its main effects are likely to be contained wit...

The recent strength of investment is encouraging, but for now it only represents a partial catch-up of investment lost while economies were in lockdown. While the pandemic may turn out to be a catalys...