Australia's leading independent economic forecaster

The rapid spread of the coronavirus and escalating lockdowns suggest that activity will contract sharply in the early stages of Q2 and that risks to the short-term outlook are skewed to the downside....

Oxford Economics has updated our quarterly global industry forecasts on an interim basis as the worldwide spread of the coronavirus has led to a severe deterioration in economic conditions. We now exp...

The exponential growth of global coronavirus cases has triggered massive policy responses around the world. But in the near term the biggest uncertainty stems from the impact of lockdowns on economic...

Widespread lockdowns and social distancing in economies affected by the coronavirus outbreak are set to cause a massive negative short-term impact on consumer spending and GDP.

The COVID-19 pandemic will badly hit all EM economies. Limitations in health care, fiscal buffers, and economic structure typically make EMs more vulnerable to major external shocks. Our scorecard ran...

Our new forecasts show the global economy entering recession in the first half of 2020, with the downturn expected to be comparable to that seen in the Global Financial Crisis.

Using a ‘fair-value’ model, we calculate that sovereign debt spreads have risen too little relative to vulnerabilities in South Africa, Turkey, and Pakistan, and too much in Ukraine and Mexico.

In our global macro chartbook for March, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. We have slashed our global GDP grow...

In recent weeks we have revised down our baseline forecasts as more countries announced draconian policy measures to limit the spread of coronavirus. Our latest forecasts now show the global economy a...

​We have slashed our 2020 growth forecast for China given the deepening impact of the coronavirus. We now expect GDP to plunge 5% y/y in Q1, given the awful data for January-February and the fact th...