Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

Emerging market currencies tend to move with the economic cycle. Consequently, after losing ground in 2020, they have recently shown signs of recovery. While growth should support EM currencies during...

The current market sell-off should be contained with a strong verbal reiteration of existing forward guidance from central bankers in the coming days. If policy makers fluff their lines, then we would...

Among the key themes for 2021 we identified late last year was that the industrial sector would remain a source of strength. Since then, manufacturers have performed even a bit better than we had expe...

Inflation is picking up across advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets (EMs), but the data suggests this will again prove temporary. We see no signs of lasting pressures that might turn a tempor...

We expect the global economy to exit its recent soft patch in Q2 as falling Covid cases and ongoing vaccine rollouts allow authorities to ease restrictions. Economies with especially tight curbs on ac...

The market is not pricing in cross-economy differences in long-Covid scarring. Changes in EM sovereign spreads since the start of the pandemic are hardly correlated with long Covid vulnerabilities, wh...

Disruption to global supply chains has resurfaced in recent months, as material shortages and freight delivery delays have damaged manufacturers’ ability to meet the strong rebound in global goods dem...

The pace and timing of relaxation to coronavirus-related restrictions will depend on a number of unpredictable factors. We use a range of relevant indicators to produce a scorecard assessing which cou...

Cross-border financial flows, including to emerging economies, held up well in 2020. We saw few signs of a repeat of the international credit crunch of 2008-2009, largely because of the successful eff...

Risks of a pickup in EM inflation over the next few months are significant. For a short while, some strong upward forces, such as commodity price recoveries and still depreciated currencies, could hol...