Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

A surge in quit rates, labelled by some ‘the great resignation’, is underway in a number of economies, most notably the US. The jump likely reflects tight labour markets and possibly a reaction to ris...

It’s too soon to judge the health implications, let alone the economic effects, of the emerging Omicron Covid variant. But its rapid spread around the globe and the speedy re-imposition of restriction...

Diminishing economic disruption and uncertainty, stemming from the pandemic and ensuing supply-side bottlenecks, bode well for a still-strong recovery in 2022. But next year will herald a new phase in...

After bouncing back from the pandemic in 2021, global real estate will likely have another strong year in 2022 – we expect returns of 8%. Despite disruptions in product and labour markets and isolated...

The most important achievement at COP26 was the success of the ‘Paris ratchet,’ whereby countries have to return every five years with updated emission targets. All told, including the long-term plans...

After a brief interruption in early 2020, global capital flows have now stabilised. The good news for the world economy is that the recovery in flows has been much faster than after the global financi...

As inflation spikes globally, the key question is how long it will last. Now that fiscal support for household budgets is all but done, the answer probably lies in labour markets. According to our ana...

Global supply-chain disruption will peak this quarter, according to our country experts. In our survey of economies accounting for 90% of world GDP, all respondents see supply chain issues hitting gro...

The characteristics of banking crises have changed significantly over recent decades; and changes in data coverage have been even more dramatic. Our new banking sector risk indicator (BSRI) encompasse...

After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.