Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

The recent improvement in business sentiment has stalled amid supply-chain disruption and the spread of the Delta variant, according to the September flash survey of risk perceptions.

Four key themes are set to dominate markets in the coming months: a volatile recovery path; a reversion to “secular stagnation-light”; abundant liquidity that is supporting asset valuations; and risin...

In 2022, we expect the strength of global economic growth to be driven by demand-side developments, in stark contrast to the past two years when shifts in activity restrictions have been the dominant...

Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term. Consequently, we’ve pushed back our expecte...

Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates. Our analysis shows that the private net wealth-to-GDP...

We highlight which economies face the most intense medium-term fiscal adjustment predicaments. For each economy, the predicament varies according to various measures of the fiscal outlook and fiscal r...

Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate distress and low interest rates suggest no cause for panic. But...

In our recent extended panel assessment on EM FX, we found most currencies have yet to recover ‘fair value’ after the March 2020 overshooting event. Estimates considered; regional stories emerge.In La...

We have cut our near-term growth forecasts, in part due to the spread of Delta, and are likely to fine-tune them further in September. But we don’t see Delta as a cause for major panic. Rather than pu...

Just as developed economies to date have not decoupled from China, so too has China not uncoupled from the rest of the world. Imports used in China’s own economy have continued to track domestic deman...