Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

Business sentiment has improved markedly, based on our June flash survey of global risk perceptions. A sharp economic recovery is seen as increasingly likely, with downside risks at the lowest level i...

Using our proprietary machine learning-based sentiment analysis, we find that of the big four central banks, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are both changing their monetary polic...

The latest US and China inflation numbers have been shrugged off by markets despite being a bit higher than expected. While we still think that talk of a shift to a new regime is premature, the risks...

Our analysis of sharp shifts in savings rates over the past half-century supports the brisk pace of consumer recovery that we assume in our baseline growth forecast. But given the scale of the recent...

Our previous analysis about the future economic impact of climate change, based on the approach taken by Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015), found significant effects, potentially cutting growth in the...

​This technical white paper revisits our original estimates of the impact of climate change and compares them to an alternative technique using ARDLs​.

Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked fears of a shift to a high inflation regime which could feature inflation persistently above...

China’s recent measures to rein in rapidly rising prices of commodities and in heavy industry will have only a limited impact, in our view. But we expect international commodity prices will stop risin...

After a weak Q1 for the global economy, our baseline forecast is for a strong growth rebound in Q2, and we remain more optimistic than the consensus on prospects for 2021 as a whole.

Emerging Markets’ reputations for delivering on fiscal commitments has never been so important as it is now, given the need for medium-term adjustment in the Covid crisis aftermath. We reveal where ma...