Australia's leading independent economic and industry forecaster

The sharp rise in global Covid cases due to the Omicron variant will dent the recovery in the near term. So far, though, the relatively lenient restrictions on activity imposed by governments during t...

Omicron has caused a significant turnaround in the relative affliction of emerging markets and advanced economies – the latter having become relatively more affected. The pattern is similar to the sit...

Our baseline forecasts are for another strong year of consumption growth in the G7 in 2022. But much depends on what happens to savings behaviour, about which there is great uncertainty. Our forecasts...

CPI inflation in the advanced economies will fall sharply in 2022, in our view. But the high starting point means that the economic and policy implications of any drop will depend on the speed – and t...

We expect transportation bottlenecks to persist well into 2022 with problems existing throughout the supply chain—spanning from port and ship capacity to the ability of logistics networks to deliver g...

Our Global Business Sentiment Index provides a new, economically meaningful gauge of business expectations. The latest reading indicates that the Omicron variant has added to pessimism, with businesse...

Global sentiment is weakening, led by a decline in consumer sentiment and a modest retreat in business sentiment – and it’s likely to take a further hit in the near term as Omicron cases rise. However...

Industrial production will lag services growth globally going into 2022 as supply-chain pressures continue to bite, but will gain considerable momentum later in the year as component shortages and cos...

The ten-to-two-year bond yield spread, a traditional financial predictor of the business cycle, has retreated substantially in the past couple of months, raising concerns over a substantial growth slo...

The health implications of the Omicron variant are still highly uncertain. But given the variant’s apparent greater ability to overcome vaccines and reinfect those that have previously caught Covid, i...